Data-driven evolution of water quality models: An in-depth investigation of innovative outlier detection approaches-A case study of Irish Water Quality Index (IEWQI) model.

Recently, there has been a significant advancement in the water quality index (WQI) models utilizing data-driven approaches, especially those integrating machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML/AI) technology. Although, several recent studies have revealed that the data-driven model has produced inconsistent results due to the data outliers, which significantly impact model reliability and accuracy. The present study was carried out to assess the impact of data outliers on a recently developed Irish Water Quality Index (IEWQI) model, which relies on data-driven techniques. To the author's best knowledge, there has been no systematic framework for evaluating the influence of data outliers on such models. For the purposes of assessing the outlier impact of the data outliers on the water quality (WQ) model, this was the first initiative in research to introduce a comprehensive approach that combines machine learning with advanced statistical techniques. The proposed framework was implemented in Cork Harbour, Ireland, to evaluate the IEWQI model's sensitivity to outliers in input indicators to assess the water quality. In order to detect the data outlier, the study utilized two widely used ML techniques, including Isolation Forest (IF) and Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) within the dataset, for predicting WQ with and without these outliers. For validating the ML results, the study used five commonly used statistical measures. The performance metric (R2) indicates that the model performance improved slightly (R2 increased from 0.92 to 0.95) in predicting WQ after removing the data outlier from the input. But the IEWQI scores revealed that there were no statistically significant differences among the actual values, predictions with outliers, and predictions without outliers, with a 95 % confidence interval at p < 0.05. The results of model uncertainty also revealed that the model contributed <1 % uncertainty to the final assessment results for using both datasets (with and without outliers). In addition, all statistical measures indicated that the ML techniques provided reliable results that can be utilized for detecting outliers and their impacts on the IEWQI model. The findings of the research reveal that although the data outliers had no significant impact on the IEWQI model architecture, they had moderate impacts on the rating schemes' of the model. This finding indicated that detecting the data outliers could improve the accuracy of the IEWQI model in rating WQ as well as be helpful in mitigating the model eclipsing problem. In addition, the results of the research provide evidence of how the data outliers influenced the data-driven model in predicting WQ and reliability, particularly since the study confirmed that the IEWQI model's could be effective for accurately rating WQ despite the presence of the data outliers in the input. It could occur due to the spatio-temporal variability inherent in WQ indicators. However, the research assesses the influence of data input outliers on the IEWQI model and underscores important areas for future investigation. These areas include expanding temporal analysis using multi-year data, examining spatial outlier patterns, and evaluating detection methods. Moreover, it is essential to explore the real-world impacts of revised rating categories, involve stakeholders in outlier management, and fine-tune model parameters. Analysing model performance across varying temporal and spatial resolutions and incorporating additional environmental data can significantly enhance the accuracy of WQ assessment. Consequently, this study offers valuable insights to strengthen the IEWQI model's robustness and provides avenues for enhancing its utility in broader WQ assessment applications. Moreover, the study successfully adopted the framework for evaluating how data input outliers affect the data-driven model, such as the IEWQI model. The current study has been carried out in Cork Harbour for only a single year of WQ data. The framework should be tested across various domains for evaluating the response of the IEWQI model's in terms of the spatio-temporal resolution of the domain. Nevertheless, the study recommended that future research should be conducted to adjust or revise the IEWQI model's rating schemes and investigate the practical effects of data outliers on updated rating categories. However, the study provides potential recommendations for enhancing the IEWQI model's adaptability and reveals its effectiveness in expanding its applicability in more general WQ assessment scenarios.

A health data led approach for assessing potential health benefits of green and blue spaces: Lessons from an Irish case study.

Research producing evidence-based information on the health benefits of green and blue spaces often has within its design, the potential for inherent or implicit bias which can unconsciously orient the outcomes of such studies towards preconceived hypothesis. Many studies are situated in proximity to specific or generic green and blue spaces (hence, constituting a green or blue space led approach), others are conducted due to availability of green and blue space data (hence, applying a green or blue space data led approach), while other studies are shaped by particular interests in the association of particular health conditions with presence of, or engagements with green or blue spaces (hence, adopting a health or health status led approach). In order to tackle this bias and develop a more objective research design for studying associations between human health outcomes and green and blue spaces, this paper discussed the features of a methodological framework suitable for that purpose after an initial, year-long, exploratory Irish study. The innovative approach explored by this study (i.e., the health-data led approach) first identifies sample sites with good and poor health outcomes from available health data (using data clustering techniques) before examining the potential role of the presence of, or engagement with green and blue spaces in creating such health outcomes. By doing so, we argue that some of the bias associated with the other three listed methods can be reduced and even eliminated. Finally, we infer that the principles and paradigm adopted by the health data led approach can be applicable and effective in analyzing other sustainability problems beyond associations between human health outcomes and green and blue spaces (e.g., health, energy, food, income, environment and climate inequality and justice etc.). The possibility of this is also discussed within this paper.

Designing a conceptual framework for strategic selection of Bushfire mitigation approaches.

Fires are an important aspect of environmental ecology; however, they are also one of the most widespread destructive forces impacting natural ecosystems as well as property, human health, water and other resources. Urban sprawl is driving the construction of new homes and facilities into fire-vulnerable areas. This growth, combined with a warmer climate, is likely to make the consequences of wildfires more severe. To reduce wildfires and associated risks, a variety of hazard reduction practices are implemented, such as prescribed burning (PB) and mechanical fuel load reduction (MFLR). PB can reduce forest fuel load; however, it has adverse effects on air quality and human health, and should not be applied close to residential areas due to risks of fire escape. On the other hand, MFLR releases less greenhouse gasses and does not impose risks to residential areas. However, it is more expensive to implement. We suggest that environmental, economic and social costs of various mitigation tools should be taken into account when choosing the most appropriate fire mitigation approach and propose a conceptual framework, which can do it. We show that applying GIS methods and life cycle assessment we can produce a more reasonable comparison that can, for example, include the benefits that can be generated by using collected biomass for bioenergy or in timber industries. This framework can assist decision makers to find the optimal combinations of hazard reduction practices for various specific conditions and locations.

Managing panic buying-related instabilities in supply chains: A COVID-19 pandemic perspective.

Global supply chains (SCs) have been severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic on several levels. For example, SCs suffered from panic buying-related instabilities and multiple disruptions of supply, demand, and capacity during the pandemic. This study developed an agent-based model (ABM) to predict the effects of panic buying-related instabilities in SCs and offered strategies to improve them. The ABM model includes a simulation and optimization model of a typical SC of an essential product manufacturer (i.e., toilet paper SC) for the analysis of scenarios and strategies to observe improvements in SCs. Among the four strategies identified, the findings suggest boosting production capacity to the maximum and ensuring optimal reorder points, order sizes, and trucks helped the essential product manufacturers reduce panic buying-related instabilities in their SCs.

An agent-based model for supply chain recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The current COVID-19 pandemic has hugely disrupted supply chains (SCs) in different sectors globally. The global demand for many essential items (e.g., facemasks, food products) has been phenomenal, resulting in supply failure. SCs could not keep up with the shortage of raw materials, and manufacturing firms could not ramp up their production capacity to meet these unparalleled demand levels. This study aimed to examine a set of congruent strategies and recovery plans to minimize the cost and maximize the availability of essential items to respond to global SC disruptions. We used facemask SCs as an example and simulated the current state of its supply and demand using the agent-based modeling method. We proposed two main recovery strategies relevant to building emergency supply and extra manufacturing capacity to mitigate SC disruptions. Our findings revealed that minimizing the risk response time and maximizing the production capacity helped essential item manufacturers meet consumers' skyrocketing demands and timely supply to consumers, reducing financial shocks to firms. Our study suggested that delayed implementation of the proposed recovery strategies could lead to supply, demand, and financial shocks for essential item manufacturers. This study scrutinized strategies to mitigate the demand-supply crisis of essential items. It further proposed congruent strategies and recovery plans to alleviate the problem in the exceptional disruptive event caused by COVID-19.

Integrated modeling of extended agro-food supply chains: A systems approach.

The current intense food production-consumption is one of the main sources of environmental pollution and contributes to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Organic farming is a potential way to reduce environmental impacts by excluding synthetic pesticides and fertilizers from the process. Despite ecological benefits, it is unlikely that conversion to organic can be financially viable for farmers, without additional support and incentives from consumers. This study models the interplay between consumer preferences and socio-environmental issues related to agriculture and food production. We operationalize the novel concept of extended agro-food supply chain and simulate adaptive behavior of farmers, food processors, retailers, and customers. Not only the operational factors (e.g., price, quantity, and lead time), but also the behavioral factors (e.g., attitude, perceived control, social norms, habits, and personal goals) of the food suppliers and consumers are considered in order to foster organic farming. We propose an integrated approach combining agent-based, discrete-event, and system dynamics modeling for a case of wine supply chain. Findings demonstrate the feasibility and superiority of the proposed model over the traditional sustainable supply chain models in incorporating the feedback between consumers and producers and analyzing management scenarios that can urge farmers to expand organic agriculture. Results further indicate that demand-side participation in transition pathways towards sustainable agriculture can become a time-consuming effort if not accompanied by the middle actors between consumers and farmers. In practice, our proposed model may serve as a decision-support tool to guide evidence-based policymaking in the food and agriculture sector.